Ukraine has to decide whether to respond by also diverting limited military resources to the region, or exploit the resulting hollowing out of Russia's military capability – front-line and reserves – in the South. Why?Īfter over a month on the offensive, even president Zelenskyy has admitted that Ukrainian progress has not been as fast as might have been expected.įormidable Russian defences have yet to be breached, Ukraine has not yet achieved momentum, and risks losing the initiative.īy massing Russian forces in the Donbas, Putin is seizing the initiative. However, instead Russia appears to be massing forces in the Donbas in preparation for a further offensive push of its own. Mindful of the challenges that Russia has faced – incompetent military, mercenary rebellions – and the fact Russia has a very long front-line to defend, conventional military wisdom might be to protect your gains from a resurgent Ukraine on its offensive.Īny Ukrainian breakthrough of the Russian frontline defences could provide Ukraine with momentum and potentially a decisive military advantage. Putin has consistently referred to the war as a 'special military operation', thus retaining the option of drawing the offensive to a close and declaring victory at a time and place of his choosing without anyone really knowing the full scale of his ambition. Military analyst Sean Bell had this to say.Īlthough Russia's original intent of its illegal invasion of Ukraine appeared to be to subjugate the whole of Ukraine, President Putin's current ambition appears to be to secure the Donbas region and Crimea. The latest comes from Ben who asks: With reports indicating tens of thousands of Russian soldiers gathering for a potential offensive on Kreminna, if this goes ahead and ends in failure and huge losses for Russia, will it affect the Russians ability to defend the front they are already stretched very thin across? We have been putting your questions on the war to our experts and senior correspondents.

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